Rate Lock Advisory

Sunday, May 10th

This week has five pieces of economic data set for release, three of which are considered to be highly important to the financial and mortgage markets. In addition to the data there are also two Treasury auctions of long-term debt that may influence mortgage rates during afternoon trading midweek. Iran war headlines and the upcoming US / China summit later in the week may also affect the markets enough to move mortgage rates. There aren’t a large number of events scheduled compared to last week, but quite a few of them have elevated importance and could cause plenty of movement in the markets.

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Bonds

Market Closed

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Dow

Market Closed

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NASDAQ

Market Closed

Mortgage Rate Trend

Trailing 90 Days - National Average

  • 30 Year Fixed
  • 15 Year Fixed
  • 5/1 ARM

Indexes Affecting Rate Lock

Medium

Unknown

Existing Home Sales from National Assoc of Realtors

Activities begin late tomorrow morning when the National Association of Realtors will post their Existing Home Sales report for April. They are expected to say home resales rose modestly last month. A strengthening housing sector makes broader economic growth more likely, making bonds less attractive to investors. That said, it will take a wide variance from forecasts for this data to cause a noticeable impact on tomorrow’s mortgage rates.

High

Unknown

Consumer Price Index (CPI)

April's Consumer Price Index (CPI) is next on this week's economic calendar, scheduled for release at 8:30 AM ET Tuesday. This highly important report measures inflation at the consumer level of the economy. These results are watched closely because rising inflation makes long-term securities, such as mortgage-related bonds, less attractive to investors and causes the Fed to be reluctant to lower key short-term interest rates again. The overall reading is expected to be up 0.6% with gas prices still high, while the more important core reading that excludes volatile food and energy costs is expected to rise 0.4% for the month. Both are predicted to rise from March’s pace on an annual basis. Favorable news for bonds and mortgage rates will be readings that indicate inflation was softer than thought.

High

Unknown

Producer Price Index (PPI)

Wednesday has the Producer Price Index (PPI) scheduled, which is the sister release of Tuesday’s CPI. This version tracks inflationary pressures at the wholesale level of the economy instead of the consumer level. There are also two readings that the markets usually look at. Forecasts are calling for a 0.4% increase in the overall reading and a 0.3% rise in the core data. Good news for mortgage rates would be smaller monthly increases and a decline in the annual readings.

Medium

Unknown

Treasury Auctions (5,7,10,20,30 year)

The two Treasury auctions that will be watching are happening Wednesday and Thursday. 10-year Notes will be auctioned Tuesday while 30-year Bonds will be sold Thursday with results of each sale posted at 1:00 PM ET on auction day. If these sales are met with a strong demand from investors, we could see bond prices rise enough during afternoon trading to cause a downward revision to mortgage rates. However, lackluster bidding in the sales, meaning longer-term securities are losing their appeal to investors, could lead to higher mortgage pricing during afternoon trading those days.

High

Unknown

Retail Sales

April’s Retail Sales report is the third major release of the week, set for an 8:30 AM ET release Thursday. It gives us consumer spending numbers that are watched closely because that category makes up over two-thirds of the U.S. economy. If consumers continue to spend, overall economic growth is more likely and bonds tend to thrive in weaker economic conditions instead of stronger. Analysts are expecting a 0.5% increase in sales from March to April and a 0.4% rise if more volatile and costly car transactions are excluded. Favorable news for bonds and mortgage rates will be data that shows consumer spending is softer than thought.

Medium

Unknown

Industrial Production

Closing this week’s economic calendar will be the release of April's Industrial Production report at 9:15 AM ET Friday. It shows manufacturing sector strength by tracking output at U.S. factories, mines and utilities. Forecasts show a 0.2% increase in production, indicating that manufacturing activity strengthened slightly last month. This report draws some attention but not nearly the same level as most of the other reports coming this week. Therefore, we shouldn’t see a strong reaction to the report regardless of what it shows.

High

Unknown

Geopolitical/Financial Issues

Overall, Tuesday looks to be the most important day of the week due to the influence the consumer inflation data has on the markets and the Federal Reserve. Data set for release Wednesday and Thursday also has the potential to draw a strong reaction. Geopolitical headlines from the Middle East and the preliminary talks with China before the actual summit begins Thursday could cause some volatility in the markets any day. There are plenty of Fed speeches scheduled, but none of them appear to have a strong chance of affecting rates. With so much happening this week, it would be prudent to keep an eye on the markets if still floating an interest rate since they can get active without notice.

Float / Lock Recommendation

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now... This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.

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